Estimating a weighted output gap for Switzerland: methodology and application
Abstract
Abstract This paper introduces a weighted output gap measure for Switzerland that combines univariate filters, multivariate filters, and production function approaches. Published quarterly by SECO since 2019:Q4, the series provides a historically consistent and robust indicator of cyclical conditions. Using an inflation forecasting framework, the weighted gap achieves forecasting performance comparable to leading individual methods; although it does not outperform them uniformly, it provides a balanced and reliable signal that mitigates method-specific weaknesses. These properties make it a useful benchmark for business cycle analysis and policy applications.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Unemployment and Economic Growth
German Economic Analysis & Policies
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Zeitschrift für schweizerische Statistik und Volkswirtschaft/Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik/Swiss journal of economics and statistics
- Volume
- 162
- Issue
- 1
- Publication date
- 26 February 2026
- Language
- EN