Forecasting Turkey's Energy Landscape Using a SARIMA Model

This chapter conducts a comprehensive analysis of sustainable energy security in Turkey by examining trends in energy sources and prices over the period from 1965 to 2021. The investigation encompasses a transition from traditional fossil fuels to renewable alternatives, reflecting global shifts towards cleaner energy. Notably, fluctuating nonrenewable energy prices underscore Turkey’s susceptibility to international market dynamics. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is employed to forecast renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption up to 2030 to anticipate future energy demands. The results reveal a trajectory of increasing renewable energy adoption, aligning with Turkey’s sustainability commitments. However, the nonrenewable energy usage is expected to rise after 2023, peaking in 2025, suggesting a possible rebound in energy demand due to, for instance, economic growth or changes in energy-intensive industries. After 2025, the nonrenewable energy sources will decline, which emphasizes the pursuit of diversified energy sources. These findings offer insights for policymakers to enhance energy security through strategic investments, infrastructure development, pricing reforms, and sustainable practices.