From BAU Growth to Genuine Progress

The BAU position holds that economic growth will be needed in order to provide funding for the green transition. An opposing view holds that further growth will add to the environmental burden, making the transition that much harder. Three main elements of the gross domestic product (GDP) are identified: Elements of damage; elements of repair; and elements of well-being. The more activity there is for damage (including greenhouse gas emissions), the more will be needed for repairs, and the less will be available for well-being. The key measure for sensible reporting about overall development in relation to the environmental burden is economic decoupling. It relates to the full content of production and consumption, and in particular to economic growth. If economic growth comes with “coupling” to increase the environmental burden and other threats (the damage part), it cannot at the same time be a solution to such problems. Absolute decoupling represents the opposite case, where economic growth takes a form and comes in sectors which do not add to damage and the need for repairs.