Transboundary Rivers of South Asia

This study explores the factors contributing to the lack of progress in river resource diplomacy among the four principal co-riparian states of South Asia (India–Pakistan to the west; India–Bangladesh–Nepal to the east). It argues that the difficulties stem from three persistent realities that define these states: first, the fundamental disparities in the distribution of natural river resources; second, the pressure on each government to prioritise the water needs of its own country; and third, their unwavering reliance on diplomatic approaches that are largely incompatible. The study further contends that a meaningful resolution is unlikely without a significant shift in how the region's river resources are conceptualised and managed. Such a shift would require these states to move away from predominantly unilateral tendencies and instead adopt bilateral, or preferably multilateral, strategies that are more transboundary, integrated, and ‘river basin’ oriented. The findings indicate that future water negotiations in the basins are likely to become increasingly complex, primarily owing to the widening disparity between water demand and availability. The adverse impacts of climate change will further aggravate this situation. Moreover, the volatile nature of India's domestic politics, coupled with escalating tensions among its provincial states, will weaken the authority of the Indian central government to effectively coordinate transboundary water management. The study concludes that the continued accumulation of unresolved river resource conflicts, particularly between India and Pakistan, India and Nepal, and India and Bangladesh, will inevitably hinder rational river resource development in the region. It will also exacerbate existing hostility in their bilateral relations and severely constrain prospects for deeper regional cooperation.