Assessment of India's High Ethanol Blending Future Using a Fuzzy-AHP and Dempster–Shafer-Based Decision Model

The ethanol-blended petrol program of India has achieved significant milestones in the last few years, and the 20% blending target is already within reach. However, strategic uncertainty remains regarding the nation&s;s transition beyond E20, especially in light of emerging technologies, food–fuel–water trade-offs, and infrastructure readiness. This study employs a hybrid Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) framework to prioritize five ethanol-related policy alternatives: (A1) Continue with E20, (A2) Rollout flex-fuel vehicles (E85), (A3) Promote dual-fuel ethanol–public transport, (A4) Invest in 2G ethanol corridors (from agricultural waste), and (A5) Ethanol-compatible hybrid vehicle development. Seven evaluation criteria were selected, including technology readiness, vehicle compatibility, cost of transition, food–fuel–water trade-offs, carbon footprint reduction, public acceptability, and policy support. Fuzzy-AHP was used to derive criteria weights, while DST modeled belief masses and captured epistemic uncertainty in expert judgment. Results indicate that while the current E20 strategy (A1) remains viable, promoting dual-fuel public transport (A3) and investing in 2G ethanol corridors (from agricultural waste) (A4) receive higher belief-based support under uncertain conditions. The framework demonstrates how conservative policy modeling, grounded in DST, can guide adaptive decision-making in India&s;s evolving biofuel landscape.