Green finance and public–private partnership project viability: A logistic regression approach to cost and sustainability alignment

Public–Private Partnerships (PPP) constitute as one of the key component in the development of infrastructure via Inclusive Green Finance (IGF). Using the overall cost of the project as a criterion, this study compares the probability of completion of PPP projects with regard to their IGF principle alignment. This research explores the impact of high, partial, and low level of IGF alignment on the probability of completion of the project using logistic regression modeling. While some studies have considered the interlinkage between financial inclusion, alignment to sustainability, and likelihood of completion in PPP arrangements, earlier studies have made an incursion into the importance of green finance in infrastructure development. The current study contributes to knowledge by including cost-based analysis in the project performance indicators concerning IGF. Generalized Linear Regression Model (GLM) logistic regression was employed to examine the data from 1,794 PPP projects across various sectors. Results indicate that, high IGF alignment has a greater probability of project completion, particularly for sectors such as sustainable agriculture, water and renewable energy. Surprisingly, even the projects with huge financial investments, but low IGF integration had significantly lower success rates. The results identify the importance of sound financial structure in ensuring PPP project sustainability. In order to enhance infrastructure success rates, policymakers as well as investors will have to judiciously integrate IGF principles. The article presents evidence-based methodology for enhancing PPP financial accessibility along with sector-wise sustainability.