Introduction

Global climate change induced by increased greenhouse gas concentrations has been widely accepted and is often cited as involving temperature rise and, consequently, precipitation pattern change. With the projected climate change, the flood risk of rivers generally will increase across most of Europe ( Houghton et al. , 2001 ). In Europe, floods are the most common natural disasters and the most costly in terms of economic damage ( EEA, 2001 ). During the last two decades, a series of extreme floods have occurred in the European rivers (e.g. the Glomma in 1995, Norway; the Rhine and the Meuse in 1993 and in 1995, Germany, France, Belgium and The Netherlands; the Oder, Morava and Danube rivers in 1997, Poland, Germany and The Czech Republic; the Rhine river in 1998, Germany and The Netherlands; the Elbe in 2002 and 2006, Germany and The Czech Republic; see https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href=" https://www.em-dat.net "> https://www.em-dat.net ). Concern about the risk of river flooding is increasing. Whether this phenomenon of frequent floodings in Europe (as well as in many other parts of the world) is a symptom of anthropogenic climate change is still debated within the scientific community (e.g. BráZdil et al. , 2005 ). Different opinions frequently refer to a reflection of natural climate variability and the consequence of human interference on the hydrological systems (e.g. Bronstert, 1995 ; Savenije, 1995 ; Corti et al ., 1999 ; Nachtnebel, 2003 ).