The influence of ENSO on seasonal drought and excess rainfall in the Sultanate of Oman

The present study has examined the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the rainfall of 8 synoptic stations situated in various parts of Oman Sultanate. The available data till 1998 was used in computational analysis. Although a simple correlation analysis does not revealed significant coherence between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and seasonal precipitation, the study has found that summer rainfall in Salalah (southern parts of the country) is influenced by intense ENSO events. For this region, the occurrence of warm ENSO phase was generally coincided with negative anomalies of the rainfall. The study has documented that, during warm events, the probability of the occurrence of flood and abundant summer rain is very low. The positive anomalies of the observed rainfall and flooding events were mostly harmonized with La Niña periods. Compared to warm periods, the median of the rainfall was found to be greater during cold ENSO phase.