Simulation of climate change effects on crop actual evapotranspiration over Sudan

The goal of this study is to illustrate the effect of possible future climate change on actual evapotranspiration and evapotranspiration deficit for three major crops grown in Sudan, namely sorghum, groundnut and millet. Using a water balance model, the simulation analysis was performed under different working scenarios of climate change, namely +1.5 °C change in temperature combined with 0 and ±20% changes in rainfall. These scenarios were, then, compared with the baseline conditions of average monthly values for the period 1961–1990. The simulation results indicate that climate change might have a significant effect on the evapotranspiration regimes and the subsequent intensity of agricultural drought over Sudan. In view of the observed magnitudes of impacts in the past few decades, such simulated changes if occur in the future would undoubtedly have significant implications for land and water resources, which are already highly exploited by increasing and sedentary human and animal populations.