Modelling manufacturing cost uncertainty with input distributions and exemplars
Abstract
In an increasingly competitive market environment, the ability to predict airframe and aeroengine costs, and associated confidence levels, at all stages of the design and manufacturing life cycle has become a commercial necessity. This paper is focussed on a research programme, conducted by the ICES team at UWE, aimed at the development of a generic, probabilistic cost modelling environment with multivariate entry levels at appropriate points in the life cycle. Specifically, the paper examines the mechanisms adopted for modelling uncertainty, and the realization of these mechanisms in a prototype software application.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Manufacturing Process and Optimization
Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
Product Development and Customization
Publication details
- Journal / source
- CRC Press eBooks
- Pages
- 881–890
- Publication date
- 11 February 2026
- Language
- EN
- Document type
- Book chapter