The sensitivity of thermal predictions to assumptions in soil properties

This paper is concerned with the errors that can arise in thermal predictions by virtue of assumptions commonly made regarding the thermal properties of frozen soils. If the conductivity function for the frozen soil is replaced by a single value, the penetration of the 0 C isotherm, for both freezing and thawing problems, is overpredicted. Where an experimentally-determined conductivity value is known, the prediction error is generally less than 20%, and depends on soil type. However, when an estimated value is used, the error can reach 50%. When simplifications are made to the apparent heat capacity function, the 0 C isotherm is under-predicted, by up to 30% in our results, again depending on soil type. Finally, if no regard is given to the unfrozen water content of frozen soil, penetration of the 0 C isotherm is again underpredicted.