Study on Trend Analysis and Forecast of Incidence, Disease and Mortality of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in China, 1990-2021

Background The pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is complex. Analyzing and forecasting the epidemiological status can provide valuable insights for COPD prevention and control. Objective To examine COPD incidence, prevalence, and mortality in China from 1990 to 2021, and predict the incidence and mortality rates for 2022-2032 to inform COPD prevention and treatment efforts. Methods Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of COPD in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected. The change rate and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to describe the changing trends of COPD. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used to predict the incidence, prevalence and mortality of COPD in China from 2022 to 2032. Results The standardized incidence and prevalence of COPD in the whole Chinese population from 1990 to 2021 showed an increasing trend (EAPC were 2.25% and 2.53%, respectively, t values of 71.35 and 165.91, respectively, P