Macro Recruiting Intensity from Micro Data
Abstract
We merge QCEW and JOLTS microdata to study firm recruiting intensity across establishments and over time. We show that large heterogeneity in vacancy-filling rates is fully accounted for by differences in gross hiring rates. We develop a theory consistent with these facts and, guided by it, construct a firm-based measure of Aggregate Recruiting Intensity (ARI). ARI is strongly procyclical, driven mainly by declines in recruiting efforts in slack labor markets. We also propose a simple proxy ARI index using publicly available macro data. ARI fluctuations explain about 40 percent of aggregate match-efficiency volatility from 2002 to 2019. (JEL D22, E32, J23, J41, J63, M51)
Fields of Study & Subjects
Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
Firm Innovation and Growth
Politics
Economics
and Education Policy
Publication details
- Journal / source
- American Economic Journal Macroeconomics
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 1–33
- Publication date
- 30 March 2026
- Language
- EN