Analysis of the factors influencing the adoption of improved rice seeds on farm resilience to climate change in the Tandjile Province of Chad

In the face of climate change threatening food security in Chad, improved seeds are promoted as a key innovation to enhance farmer resilience. However, their adoption remains limited in the province of Tandjile. This study aims to analyze the socio-economic and institutional determinants of the adoption of improved rice seeds and to assess their causal impact on agricultural productivity, as an indicator of resilience. Based on a sample of 270 farm households and 68 qualitative interviews in the province of Tandjile, an Endogenous Switching Regression model was employed to correct for selection biases and estimate the impact of adoption on yield. Our findings reveal a significant causal impact: adoption increases yield by an average of 624 kg/ha for adopters (Average Treatment Effect on the Treated). The potential impact for non-adopters amounts to 665 kg/ha (Average Treatment Effect on the Untreated), suggesting that the most vulnerable farmers would have the most to gain. Adoption is primarily determined by access to credit, extension services, membership in a farmer organization, education level, and the complementary use of fertilizer. The analysis reveals significant selection bias: adopting farmers exhibit inherently higher productive capacities, independent of the technology’s effect. Improved seeds are effective in enhancing productive resilience. The main challenge lies in their equitable adoption. Policies must shift from a mere dissemination of seeds towards an integrated approach, specifically targeting access to credit, strengthening extension services and farmer organizations, and removing barriers for vulnerable groups (smallholders, women, less-educated farmers) to realize the full potential of this innovation.