Key Changes in Food Trade after COVID-19

There were key changes in food trade after COVID-19, especially in the countries of South-East Europe.The European agri-food supply chain, although severely hampered by the pandemic and its constraints, was able to cope with the pandemic to a considerable extent.The value of agricultural outputs in 2020 fell by 1.4% compared to 2019, but increased by 2.9% compared to the 2015-2019 average.The research aims to examine whether and, if so, in what way the COVID-19 restrictions have affected the foreign trade competitiveness of agri-food products in the countries included in the study (Balkan countries (EU and non-EU) and Hungary).Furthermore, to examine what is fundamentally characteristic of the agri-food competitiveness of these countries and whether it is true that processed products are more competitive in these countries.Based on data from the European Union, the FAO, and World Integrated Trade Solutions, we examined basic food production and trade data from 2015 to 2024.This study compares the performance of the countries studied before the COVID-19 pandemic and in the years affected by COVID-19, based on the calculation of the trend function and the Balassa index, and draws conclusions.Comparing the results with other comparative advantage measurement options, e.g.Hillman index, RTA, RC, or linear RXA.Even though, in several cases, production and trade in the Balkan and Eastern European countries (Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria) decreased, no significant change was observed in the competitiveness of the main food products in the countries studied, where the competitiveness of the products was balanced, i.e. there was no significant difference in competitiveness between product categories.In most cases, we can speak of a competitive disadvantage or a slight advantage.One reason for this may be the transformation of global supply chains into local supply chains and a shift towards local production.Production was less affected by the epidemic, but international trade declined and underwent transformation, with countries at a competitive disadvantage experiencing a greater decline, and those at a competitive advantage experiencing a lesser one.This is supported by the fact that for countries with a product group that has a significant competitive advantage, this increase was even more pronounced between 2020 and 2022.In the case of other, less competitive products, the competitiveness value decreased in several cases.It is clear that the competitive disadvantage has deepened, and these competitively disadvantaged countries must adapt, for example, by investing, strengthening, and supporting local trade.Countries and products with a competitive advantage are less affected by the impact of restrictions, while those with a weaker competitive advantage are more significantly impacted.The study provides a better understanding for professionals involved in international food trade.It allows local stakeholders to manage potential risks and stabilize long-term benefits.G.