Examining the Structural Linkages Between Settlement Infrastructure and Population Dynamics in Industrial-Based Urban Systems

Purpose: This study aims to examine how the spatial configuration and balance of industrial, residential, and urban service–cultural infrastructure influence changes in the working-age population in industrial-based cities. By moving beyond employment-centered interpretations, it seeks to identify planning-relevant infrastructure compositions that support long-term population retention and urban sustainability. Method: Using data from 392 general industrial complexes nationwide, the study analyzes changes in the working-age population between 2020 and 2024 through a Random Forest model incorporating industrial, housing, and urban service–cultural indicators. SHAP-based interpretation and K-means clustering are then applied to classify cities by infrastructure impact patterns and to reveal spatially differentiated population dynamics. Result: The analysis reveals that the configuration of residential, lifestyle, and cultural infrastructure is more strongly associated with changes in the working-age population than the absolute scale of industrial infrastructure. In particular, clusters with a higher proportion of lifestyle and cultural amenities exhibit relatively greater population growth, whereas those characterized by imbalances—such as an overconcentration of residential facilities—show pronounced population decline.