Growth Trends and Instability in Area, Production, and Yield of Major Agricultural Crops in Aligarh District: A Geographical Analysis

Agriculture remains the backbone of India’s rural economy, providing food, employment, and raw materials while sustaining a large share of livelihoods. At the district level, trends and variability in crop area, production, and yield determine local food security and farmer incomes, so tracking both long-term growth and instability is essential for targeted policy, risk management, and climate-resilient interventions. The present study investigates the long-term growth dynamics and instability patterns in the area, production, and yield of major agricultural crops in Aligarh District, Uttar Pradesh, during the period 1994-95 to 2022-23. The analysis is based entirely on secondary data compiled from official statistical sources, including the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Government of India, and the Uttar Pradesh DES. To evaluate the temporal behaviour of crop performance, analytical techniques such as Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Trend Analysis, and Coppock’s Instability Index (CII) were applied. The results reveal that agricultural growth in the district has been predominantly yield-oriented rather than area-induced, indicating moderate technological advancement rather than expansion in cultivated area. Wheat remained the dominant and relatively stable crop, while rice, potato, mustard, and pearl millet recorded positive growth in both productivity and production. Conversely, maize, barley, sugarcane, and arhar showed declining trends in area and output, reflecting changing cropping preferences and climatic sensitivity. The instability analysis indicates that wheat, rice, and pearl millet were more stable compared to the higher variability observed in arhar, maize, and sugarcane. Overall, the district’s agriculture shows partial diversification toward irrigated and commercial crops, but the uneven growth pattern highlights the need for region-specific strategies emphasizing sustainability, irrigation efficiency, and resilience to climate variability.