An Empirical Analysis of Rubber Cultivation in Kerala: Trends and Determinants

The present research intends to analyse the development patterns and instability in rubber cultivation in Kerala between 2003 and 2020: Period I (2003–04 to 2008–09), Period II (2009–10 to 2014–15), and Period III (2015–16 to 2020–21). Further, the study intends to understand how the climatic factors such as rainfall (Rn) and temperature (Tem), along with the area under rubber, are affecting the productivity of rubber during the period 2003–2021. Data has been taken from government publications, Rubber Board statistics and the Indian Meteorological Department. Trends in area, output, and productivity were assessed using methods including CAGR computation and instability analysis utilising the Coefficient of Variation (CV), the Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI), and the Cuppock Instability Index (CII). A panel ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) model has been applied for analysing the short- and long-term impact of climatic elements on rubber cultivation. Although productivity showed hints of resiliency in the latter period, the statistics suggest a downward trend in the area and output of rubber, particularly after 2009. The results of panel ARDL show that rainfall and area have a positive impact on productivity of rubber, whereas temperature has a negative effect in the long run. All variables have positive effect on productivity, though the impact of area is statistically insignificant in the short term. The study underscores the urgent need for region-specific adaptive strategies to stabilise and boost rubber productivity. Policy support should focus on climate-resilient agricultural practices, targeted irrigation investments, and research in heat-tolerant rubber clones. Moreover, maintaining or expanding cultivated areas where feasible, coupled with microclimatic monitoring, can sustain long-term productivity.