Nonlinear Interactions of Timing and Amplitude Biases in Modeled Southern Ocean pCO2: The Roles of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon, Total Alkalinity, and Sea Surface Temperature

The Southern Ocean is a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and critical to the current and future carbon cycle. This net annual CO2 flux reflects the balance between strong seasonal variability characterized by opposing periods of winter outgassing and summer uptake. Using a simple framework, we evaluate how model biases in both the amplitude and timing of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) and in the amplitude of sea surface temperature (SST) impact simulated pCO2. We examine seasonal CO2 fluxes and pCO2 south of the Subantarctic Front in 42 Earth System Model and three state estimate simulations. Only 11 of the 45 simulations have a seasonal pCO2 cycle with a correlation of ?0.7 to observed pCO2, while 26 have a correlation of