Projected Mass Timber Use in Residential and Nonresidential Construction: A Twelve-Country Analysis

Abstract This study analyzes the demand outlook for mass timber (MT), specifically Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT) and Glue-Laminated Timber (Glulam), in residential and nonresidential buildings across 12 countries, including the United States, seven Western European countries, three Latin American countries, and China. Two adoption scenarios, conservative and optimistic, were modeled using an innovation diffusion model. All scenarios are based on the principle that the past adoption behavior of the housing industry in response to an innovative structural material is a good predictor of future behavior. The findings in this study provide valuable insights into the adoption of MT, aiding policymakers and researchers in informed decision-making. Within the conservative scenario, Western European and US housing markets continue to dominate global MT demand, with the total demand in the 12 countries reaching 8.1 million m³ by 2060. Within the optimistic scenario, significant growth potential is projected in most countries analyzed, with MT demand projected to reach 24.8 million m³ by 2060. Within the optimistic scenario, demand for MT will be driven by higher acceptance and significant housing starts in emerging economies, such as China and Latin America. Mid-to-low-rise and nonresidential buildings are expected to dominate the market share, with CLT outpacing the Glulam demand.