[Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Carbon Peak in the Provincial Construction Industry of China Under Multiple Scenarios].

Under the "double carbon" goal， the green and high-quality development of the construction industry in China has an important impact on the realization of carbon peak. At the provincial scale， the IPCC coefficient method was used to estimate the carbon emissions of the construction industry from 2001 to 2020 in each province. Based on the STIRPAT model， the WOA-BP neural network model was used to simulate the carbon emissions of the construction industry and its spatio-temporal evolution from 2021 to 2050 in different scenarios. The research showed that： ① From 2001 to 2020， the per capita carbon emissions of China's construction industry will gradually increase， with high per capita carbon emissions in eastern and central provinces and low per capita carbon emissions in western and northern provinces. ② Population was the most important factor affecting the carbon emissions of the construction industry in each province from 2021 to 2050， and the influence was different among provinces. ③ From 2021 to 2050， the peak time of carbon emissions from the construction industry was different under different scenarios， and the peak time was the earliest under constrained scenarios. Seventeen provinces in the constrained scenario， five provinces in the normal equilibrium scenario， and zero provinces in the relaxed radical scenario were projected to achieve carbon peak before 2030. The north and southeast coastal areas reached the peak earlier， followed by Central China， Southwest late， and Shaanxi and Liaoning late. The western development strategy would delay the carbon peak of the western construction industry， so it is necessary to strengthen the carbon emission intensity constraint.