[Spatial-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors Analysis of Ecological Environmental Quality in the Dabie Mountain Region of Northeastern Hubei].

Elucidating the spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of ecological environment quality （EEQ） in the Dabie Mountain region of northeastern Hubei provides critical scientific support for ecological security barrier construction in the middle Yangtze River Basin. This study develops a triadic analytical framework （pattern-driver-threshold） through the integration of multi-source remote sensing， meteorological， and socioeconomic data， systematically investigating EEQ dynamics from 2001 to 2021 via combined Theil-Sen Median trend analysis， Mann-Kendall testing， and Hurst index prediction. Key findings include：① An overall EEQ improvement trend occurred （51.95% of areas enhanced） despite cyclical fluctuations， with multi-year means evolving from 0.470 in 2001 to a peak of 0.514 before declining to 0.497 in 2021. ② There was pronounced spatial stratification showing "excellent/good" grades concentrated in northwestern， northeastern， and southwestern mountainous zones versus "poor" levels in central-southern river plains. ③ The optimal spatial scale for driver analysis was identified as 7.5 km， with land use intensity （exhibiting growing stress effects）， vegetation coverage， precipitation， elevation， temperature， and built-up area proportion constituting dominant drivers. EEQ demonstrated negative nonlinear responses to land use intensity， temperature， and built-up areas， contrasting with positive relationships to vegetation coverage， elevation， and precipitation， whereas socioeconomic factors （population density， GDP） showed negligible impacts. ④ Projections indicated persistent spatial polarization， with 39.72% of the region predicted for EEQ improvement against 30.75% degradation areas. These results provide quantitative foundations for dynamically optimizing ecological conservation boundaries， regulating construction land intensity， and formulating climate-resilient governance strategies， while establishing a transferable paradigm for sustainable mountain ecosystem management.