[Medium- and Long-term CO2 Emission Projections and Emission Reduction Pathways in China： Application of the LEAP Model].

As the world's largest country regarding energy consumption and carbon emissions， analyzing China's carbon emissions and emission reduction potential is essential to the fight against global climate change. This study constructs the LEAP-China model to forecast and analyze China's carbon emissions and emission reduction potential in three dimensions： primary energy， end-use industries， and carbon emission contribution. The conclusions are as follows： ① Except for the baseline scenario， the industrial structure emission reduction， technological progress， energy structure emission reduction， and blueprint scenarios were all able to realize the goal of "peaking by 2030." ② From 2022 to 2060， carbon emissions from all industries except industry were declining. ③ The carbon emissions of various industrial sectors varied significantly according to their energy consumption， with chemicals > other industries > non-metallic mineral products industry > ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry > non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry > paper and paper products industry. ④ The optimization of energy structure had apparent emission reduction effects in the short term； the optimization of industrial structure was a continuous driving force for carbon emission reduction， and technological progress was a long-term driving force for carbon emission reduction. The study can provide a decision-making basis for China to realize the medium- and long-term carbon emission reduction path.