[Spatio-temporal Pattern， Dynamic Evolution， and Carbon Compensation Zoning of Land Use Carbon Budget in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region].

Exploring the spatio-temporal pattern， dynamic evolution， and carbon compensation zoning of the county land use carbon budget has great practical significance for territorial spatial pattern optimization and building a fair and effective regional carbon compensation mechanism in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Based on land use cover， nighttime light， and energy consumption data， a land use carbon budget estimation model was constructed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region area. Based on the exploratory spatial data analysis method and kernel density estimation， the spatio-temporal pattern and dynamic evolution trend of carbon emissions were analyzed. The economic value of carbon offsetting was calculated based on the carbon offsetting value model. Finally， carbon compensation zoning was carried out based on K-means clustering combined with ecological function zoning. The results indicated that： ① The fitting R2 of the indirect carbon emission estimation model for construction land was 0.776 8， with good simulation accuracy and the estimation effect meeting the expected standards. ② The carbon sink in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region showed a continuous growth trend； the carbon source showed a decreasing trend after peaking； and the overall increase in net carbon emissions was consistent with the carbon source and exhibited significant positive spatial correlation， with four types of aggregation patterns. ③ The absolute difference in net carbon emissions between districts and counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region as a whole， Tianjin， and Hebei Province showed a trend of expansion， while the absolute difference in net carbon emissions between districts in Beijing shifted from expansion to a trend of narrowing. The tailing effect in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a whole and the three provinces was quite significant. ④ In 2022， Xicheng and Dongcheng districts in Beijing and Heping district in Tianjin were key areas for payment. Chongli district in Zhangjiakou， Daxing district in Beijing， and Fengning Manchu Autonomous County in Chengde were key areas for compensation. The compensation areas-restricted development zones included 76 districts and counties， which was the type with the highest proportion， mainly concentrated in most districts and counties of the Yanshan-Taihang Mountain ecological conservation area and the Bashang Plateau ecological protection area in Hebei Province.