[Coupled SD-PLUS Model for Land Use Change and Multi-scenario Dynamic Simulation in Shandong Province].
Abstract
. ③ The driving mechanism analysis revealed that the combined contribution rate of GDP and population density to the expansion of construction land was 42.3%， and the leading role of DEM and slope on the distribution of ecological land was more than 35%. The verification of the model showed that the historical simulation error of the SD module was less than 8% （the cultivated land error was only 0.27%）， the Kappa coefficient of the PLUS module was 0.8， and the simulation accuracy was significantly better than that of the single model. By setting and comparing the four scenarios， the research results can provide scientific basis and decision support for future land use planning and management.
Publication details
- Journal / source
- PubMed
- Volume
- 47
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 6188–6198
- Publication date
- 8 September 2026
- Language
- ZH