Evaluation of Energy Metabolism Pressure and Sustainable Development in the China-ASEAN Region from the Perspective of Proximate and Remote Coupling

Against the background of deepening integration within the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, which has significantly intensified near-long-range coupling effects within the regional ecological economy, existing research remains insufficient in providing a quantitative exploration of large-scale cross-border energy metabolism and factor coupling under an adapted analytical framework. This study aims to systematically elucidate the evolutionary characteristics of regional energy metabolism pressure and the internal driving mechanisms of sustainable development, thereby providing critical, quantified scientific evidence for regional collaborative governance and green transformation. In terms of methodology, this study utilizes material flow panel data from 11 China-ASEAN countries spanning the period from 2005 to 2020. Based on sustainable development theory and the near-long-range coupling framework, this study integrates energy-value metabolism analysis with the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. This facilitates the construction of a multidimensional evaluation system comprising total annual metabolism (U), external factor dependence (EER), local and transboundary environmental load ratios (LELR, TELR), and the ecological sustainability index (ESI). The research findings indicate that total regional energy utilization exhibited a steady upward trend. Vietnam and Cambodia demonstrated the most pronounced growth rates of 146.32% and 168.08%, respectively; meanwhile China recorded the largest total energy volume (3.03×1025 Sej) and Laos the smallest (7.32×1022 Sej). Furthermore, regional energy externality generally increased, with Singapore exhibiting the highest dependence on remote factor flows through global value chains, thus indicating that most nations are continuously strengthening their reliance on external factors. In terms of metabolic pressure assessment, environmental load rates for both near and remote factors continued to increase, with remote pressures consistently exceeding local pressures. Specifically, Brunei faced the highest local environmental pressure due to its oil- and gas-dependent economic structure, whereas Singapore’s limited resource endowment resulted in the highest remote environmental pressure. Meanwhile, countries such as China and Thailand maintained relatively high levels across both categories. Sustainability assessments revealed that the overall level of regional sustainable development declined during the study period. Nevertheless, Laos and Cambodia maintained superior system vitality and sustainability (ESI > 2), whereas Singapore exhibited typical consumption-driven system characteristics with the weakest sustainability performance. The analysis of the driving forces demonstrates that renewable resource utilization and economic growth serve as the primary positive drivers of sustainability enhancement. Conversely, high energy intensity and a heavy dependence on externally imported resources act as principal negative constraints. Notably, the overall driving mechanism evolved through three distinct stages: the "extensive growth-resource consumption" mode, the "trade deepening-efficiency differentiation" mechanism, and the "resource constraint-equity adaptation" phase. This study contributes to the academic field by integrating near-long-range coupling perspectives with energy-value theory to address the gap in large-scale, quantitative, cross-regional research. Furthermore, it achieves a differentiated measurement of factor impacts, and reveals the phased evolutionary patterns of the mechanisms driving sustainable development.