A vicious cycle: populist radical-right support and conservative attitudes on gender and sexuality in the Dutch case

This article asks whether gender and sexuality attitudes influence vote propensity for the populist radical right (PRR) and whether, reciprocally, PRR gender and sexuality discourse influences their prospective voters on these issues. Using a large data set that includes a panel section spanning two Dutch national elections with topical data on political preference, gender identity and sexuality (attitudes), we find that conservative attitudes on trans rights and non-binarity increase PRR vote propensity. Opposition to gay rights also marginally increased PRR vote propensity in 2023, though not in 2021. Additionally, we find that PRR vote propensity increases the likelihood of becoming more conservative on gender and sexuality. Compared to the general electorate, those who preferred PRR parties in 2021 have become particularly more conservative on trans rights and non-binarity in 2023. We thus show that demand for PRR parties is not (just) exogenous and argue that while European PRR discourse is converging, the specific issues are context dependent.