Structural modeling of campaign finance decisions in the U.S. House of Representatives

Computational modeling and quantifying the drivers of modern political campaign finance is an emerging area of interest among researchers, policymakers, and the general public alike. In a federal legislative body like the U.S. House of Representatives, campaign finance decisions or “money flows” between party members are legal and common practice among both political parties for allocating resources and influence. Using extensive data from the Federal Election Commission, we model these money flows as complex networks and explain their formation using exogenous factors, previously only discussed qualitatively, such as seniority, non-coordinated SuperPAC expenditures, and House leadership status. Our results show that these factors have significant and persistent effects on both parties. These findings provide an empirical basis for ongoing debates about term limits in Congress and the role of unlimited independent expenditures by SuperPACs.