Estimating the potential impact of global research on neglected tropical diseases on population-level indicators of health access, sanitation, and research capacity

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) continue to affect over a billion people, disproportionately impacting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While scientific research on NTDs has expanded substantially over the last two decades, it remains unclear whether this growth has translated into measurable improvements in population-level health, development, or research capacity. This study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global NTDs research on population-level indicators related to health systems, socioeconomic conditions, and research and development. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal analysis, integrating bibliometric data from 107,251 NTDs-related publications with country-level indicators from open-access global databases. Countries were stratified by World Bank income classification. Linear regressions, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions were used to examine associations and heterogeneity across indicators and income groups. RESULTS: NTDs research output was significantly associated with reduced out-of-pocket health expenditures and current health spending (as % of GDP) in LICs and LMICs, and with expansion of the NTD drug pipeline in LICs and HICs. Strongest and most consistent effects were observed in the WASH domain, particularly reductions in open defecation and sanitation-related mortality. However, research capacity gains were concentrated in HICs. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: While NTDs research has yielded measurable benefits in selected domains and settings, its overall population-level impact remains uneven. Enhancing scientific coherence will require intentional alignment of research agendas with health system needs, equity-driven funding, and stronger translation mechanisms in resource-limited settings.