Trends in the burden of gastroesophageal reflux disease in China and Global from 1990 to 2021 and predictive analysis for 2040

BACKGROUND: This study analyzed the temporal trends in the age- and gender-specific disease burden of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) in China from 1990 to 2021, comparing its incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) with global estimates. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database 1990-2021. The Joinpoint regression model was used to quantify trends via annual average percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals. Multidimensional comparisons were conducted by age, gender, and time. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, China exhibited declining trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates for GERD, in contrast to increasing trends globally. Disease burden was higher among females and increased with age, with the middle-aged and elderly experiencing the greatest rise. Projections indicate a continued increase in GERD burden in China by 2040. CONCLUSION: Despite recent declines, GERD remains a significant public health challenge in China due to its large population and rapid aging. Targeted prevention and intervention strategies are urgently needed.