Socio-demographic and environmental determinants of camel mortality in Somaliland’s nomadic communities: A negative binomial regression analysis of the 2020 demographic and health survey

This study presents the first comprehensive quantitative assessment of the socio-demographic and environmental determinants of camel mortality in Somaliland's nomadic communities, leveraging household-level data from the 2020 Somaliland Demographic and Health Survey (SLDHS). Employing a Negative Binomial Regression analysis, we explored the magnitude of total and cause-specific (drought, flood, disease) camel mortality. Our findings reveal that camel mortality is not a random occurrence but is systematically influenced by a confluence of environmental and demographic factors. Key determinants of increased mortality risk include residence in the eastern regions of Somaliland (Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag), older age of the household head, and reliance on unimproved water sources. Environmental shocks, particularly drought, emerged as the most significant drivers of camel deaths. While older household heads and larger household sizes were associated with fewer drought-related deaths, possibly due to accumulated experience or better coping strategies, female headship showed a nuanced role, being protective for overall and drought mortality but a risk factor for flood and disease-related deaths. Access to unimproved water sources consistently increased the risk of camel mortality across all causes, while higher household wealth was associated with significantly fewer deaths. The study highlights a clear and statistically significant east-west disparity in camel survival, with eastern regions experiencing higher mortality. These insights provide crucial evidence for policymakers and animal health organizations to design targeted interventions, safeguard pastoral assets, and strengthen community resilience against mounting environmental and economic pressures in data-scarce regions.