Beyond diagonal noise: A better predator-prey modeling framework with cross-covariance
Abstract
The introduction of stochasticity into continuous ecological models frequently relies on phenomenological, diagonal diffusion terms that lack a rigorous microscopic basis. We demonstrate that this standard practice fundamentally misrepresents the geometry of demographic fluctuations. By deriving a stochastic Rosenzweig-MacArthur model directly from an integer-valued, Bernoulli-coupled continuous-time Markov chain, we isolate the exact diffusion covariance structure dictated by event stoichiometry. We mathematically prove that coupled predation-conversion events inherently generate a structurally negative predator-prey cross-covariance, exposing the severe mathematical and biological limitations of standard diagonal-noise approximations. Furthermore, we resolve a persistent ambiguity in stochastic population modeling by explicitly formalizing the bifurcation between open-domain formulations (for survival-conditioned interior dynamics) and absorbed formulations (for extinction-permitting dynamics). To rigorously support this distinction, we develop a tailored two-stage Lyapunov well-posedness architecture that separates non-explosion criteria from boundary-barrier positivity invariance. By bridging microscopic event stoichiometry with macroscopic boundary-degenerate diffusions, this work replaces ad hoc noise constructs with a definitive, mathematically exact template for covariance-consistent and boundary-aware ecological modeling.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
stochastic dynamics and bifurcation
Gene Regulatory Network Analysis
Publication details
- Journal / source
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- e0350127–e0350127
- Publication date
- 27 May 2026
- Language
- EN