Weather Jiu-Jitsu: Prospects for atmospheric nudging to defuse the impact of catastrophic weather extremes
Abstract
Extreme weather events, e.g., droughts, floods, heatwaves, and freezes, are increasing in frequency and intensity, posing severe socio-economic impacts as growing populations heighten exposure to risks that conventional infrastructure cannot fully address. We propose supplementing disaster management with Weather Jiu-Jitsu: a strategy that exploits the chaotic sensitivity of mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics to redirect destructive weather trajectories through small, precisely timed perturbations guided by Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponent (FTLE) diagnostics and deep learning forecast models. Proof-of-concept experiments using the Aurora deep-learning Earth system model show that FTLE-guided nudges applied days before peak impact can shift a hurricane track to avoid landfall on a major city, weaken the peak intensity of a blocking-driven cold extreme, and reduce atmospheric river moisture transport under favorable upstream conditions. Control inputs remain below 2% of total system energy in idealized models, though real-world implementation will require advances in monitoring, attribution, and international governance. This nature-assisted approach could form a transformative complement to conventional disaster management in the 21st century.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
Publication details
- Journal / source
- PLOS Water
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- e0000562–e0000562
- Publication date
- 24 June 2026
- Language
- EN