Weather Jiu-Jitsu: Prospects for atmospheric nudging to defuse the impact of catastrophic weather extremes

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Authors: Qin Huang, Moyan Liu, Upmanu Lall
Cited by: 1
References: 45

Abstract

Extreme weather events, e.g., droughts, floods, heatwaves, and freezes, are increasing in frequency and intensity, posing severe socio-economic impacts as growing populations heighten exposure to risks that conventional infrastructure cannot fully address. We propose supplementing disaster management with Weather Jiu-Jitsu: a strategy that exploits the chaotic sensitivity of mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics to redirect destructive weather trajectories through small, precisely timed perturbations guided by Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponent (FTLE) diagnostics and deep learning forecast models. Proof-of-concept experiments using the Aurora deep-learning Earth system model show that FTLE-guided nudges applied days before peak impact can shift a hurricane track to avoid landfall on a major city, weaken the peak intensity of a blocking-driven cold extreme, and reduce atmospheric river moisture transport under favorable upstream conditions. Control inputs remain below 2% of total system energy in idealized models, though real-world implementation will require advances in monitoring, attribution, and international governance. This nature-assisted approach could form a transformative complement to conventional disaster management in the 21st century.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis

Publication details

Journal / source
PLOS Water
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Volume
5
Issue
6
Pages
e0000562–e0000562
Publication date
24 June 2026
Language
EN