Urban Transformation Pathways for Green Sustainable Development: A DEMATEL Perspective from Datong

Within the framework of the global low-carbon transition, the systemic pathways of green transformation in resource-dependent cities have become a more critical issue to understand. Using Datong as an example, this paper integrates the “Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL)” and “Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM)” to analyze the causal relationship and hierarchical order of fifteen major factors that affect urban transformation.” The findings indicate a three-level mechanism comprising of a root driving layer, an execution-transition layer, and an outcome layer. The core drivers of transformation are policy coherence and enforcement (A1), green investment intensity (B1), and industrial diversification with low-carbon upgrading (B2). The execution-transition layer (A2), monitoring and data capability (A3), just transition financing (B3), and enhancements in renewable energy penetration, end-use electrification, and green mobility infrastructure (C1–C3) are the links between strategic intent and actual outcomes. The outcome-oriented factors that reflect transformation performance are environmental quality improvement, ecological restoration, carbon-intensity reduction, employment resettlement, energy affordability, and public satisfaction (D1–D3, E1–E3). The paper offers a systematic analytical framework of the driving forces of sustainable transition in resource-based cities and presents policy-relevant implications of advancing the green development of Datong. Keywords: Green sustainable transformation; Resource-based cities; DEMATEL–ISM; Policy coherence and enforcement; Industrial diversification and low-carbon upgrading