Changes in the Global Nuclear Order and a Conceptual Exploration of Strategic Directions for Managing the North Korean Nuclear Crisis - Broad Crisis Stability and Comprehensive Crisis Management Paradigm -

As the nuclear order transforms into a multipolar, multilayered, and asymmetric structure, the risks of inadvertent escalation that cannot be explained by the Cold War concept of crisis stability, grounded in “mutual vulnerability,” have been increasing. Research on the North Korean nuclear crisis, however, still largely remains confined within the Cold War concept of crisis stability. Building on this problem awareness, this study identifies instability factors such as the possibility of misinterpretation caused by AI-enhanced cyberattacks, the weakening of deterrence stability due to heightened regional nuclear crises, the lowering of the nuclear threshold through the integration of advanced precision weapons and nuclear arms, and the intensification of arms race instability. On this basis, it establishes the concept of “broad crisis stability.” The analysis of North Korea’s nuclear threat demonstrates the need for a transition toward a comprehensive crisis management paradigm.