Energy price shocks and inflation dynamics in European economies: Evidence from ARDL and nonlinear ARDL models

This study investigates the relationship between energy prices and inflation dynamics in European economies using monthly data for the period 2012–2026. The analysis focuses on the impact of Brent crude oil prices and Henry Hub natural gas prices on inflation measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The empirical framework employs autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL models to capture both symmetric and asymmetric effects of energy price shocks. The results indicate that oil price increases exert a significant and persistent impact on inflation, while gas prices show weaker short-run effects. The nonlinear specification reveals asymmetric transmission, with inflation responding more strongly to oil price increases than decreases. The findings highlight the importance of energy market developments for inflation dynamics and provide implications for monetary policy and energy market regulation.