MODELAGEM ESPAÇO-TEMPORAL PARA ESTRATIFICAÇÃO DE ÁREA DE RISCO DE ARBOVIROSES NO MUNICÍPIO DE NATAL, RN (2019-2022)

Arboviruses such as dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika pose a growing threat to public health, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. The spread of these mosquito-borne viruses, primarily transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has been driven by ecological, economic, and social factors. In this context, health surveillance must consider the spatial diversity of transmission risk to optimize control strategies.In Brazil, the ARBOALVO project, led by the Oswaldo Cruz Institute/Fiocruz in partnership with the Ministry of Health, aims to identify priority areas for interventions using risk stratification methodologies. In Natal (RN), an entomo-epidemiological study analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of arboviruses between 2019 and 2022. The Scan statistical scanning technique was employed to map 426 zones of the city, classifying them into different risk levels. Spatiotemporal permutation analysis identified and classified 426 areas of the municipality into four risk levels: 34 very high, 140 high, 164 medium, and 88 low. The distribution revealed significant differences between the territories. Very high-risk areas are concentrated in the northern and western districts, contrasting with lower risk areas in the southern and eastern districts. The findings reinforce the importance of methodologies that enable targeted interventions, maximizing resources and enhancing efforts to combat arboviruses. Identifying priority areas allows for more efficient planning to reduce transmission and mitigate the impacts of these diseases on public health.