Invasive risk of Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in China under current and future climate change scenarios

The red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren, 1972), is native to tropical and subtropical South America but has become a highly invasive species in parts of the southern United States, the Caribbean, and southern China. RIFA has caused significant ecological disruption through rapid colonization and aggressive behavior, affecting ecosystems and human health. This study aimed to examine the impact of different variables on the distribution of S. invicta throughout China and to predict its risk areas under the Current (1970-2000) and future climate change scenarios (2070s) using the ACCESS1-0 and BCC-CSM1-1 climate models. According to the MaxEnt model, under current climatic conditions, the total risk area of S. invicta was 2.554 million km2, covering 27.52% of the study area. In the 2070s, high-risk areas are projected to increase by 1.72-fold and 1.68-fold under ACCESS1-0 and BCC-CSM1-1 scenarios, respectively. Precipitation of driest month (Bio14), mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio11), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), pH of water, topography, mean diurnal range (Bio2), and soil organic carbon were the main factors influencing the distribution of S. invicta. Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was used to assess key determinants influencing S. invicta distribution. The GLM identified elevated land surface temperature, moderate soil moisture, organic carbon, vegetation cover, topographic diversity, and high urbanization as key factors promoting S. invicta proliferation, while adverse soil conditions limited suitable habitats. This research provides significant clues about the current distribution patterns of S. invicta and the influence of climate change, soil, physical and biological land properties, and anthropogenic activities on its distribution. Additional measures are necessary to control and prevent the continued spread of S. invicta in China.