El impacto de la (in)seguridad ciudadana y la inmigración en el apoyo a la democracia. Evidencia observacional de Ecuador (2020-2024)

In Latin America, although the impact of contextual determinants on democratic disaffection has been investigated, the nexus between anti-immigrant attitudes, perceptions of citizen (in)security, and support for democracy has not been systematically examined. The goal of this article, therefore, is to contribute to filling this gap through an analysis of the Ecuadorian case—a country marked by institutional crises and a massive inflow of immigrants. The study relies on data from the Latinobarómetro (2020 and 2023, N=1200 each) and post-stratified online surveys (2021 and 2024, N=1289 and N=597). The methodological approach combines Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regressions and Structural Equation Models (SEM) in order to identify both direct effects and relationships among latent variables. The findings indicate that perceived victimization has a limited impact, whereas punitive attitudes and pluralism are positively associated with support for democracy. By contrast, immigration does not exert significant direct effects, although it is linked to perceptions of security and institutional trust.