Modelling Freight Transportation Distribution for Food Security based on Equlibrium Consumption (Case Study in West Java, Indonesia)

The rice distribution systems in West Java are under constant stress because of changing production capacity and rising demand for consumption. This study examines interregional rice movement by creating a gravity model based on equilibrium consumption that directly connects areas of surplus and deficit production through spatial interaction processes. Freight flows are estimated by utilizing population size as a proxy for consumption demand, while integrating production capacity and distance resistance, which are calibrated via regression analysis. The analysis starts with multiple linear regression to find the main factors that cause trips to happen. Then, it uses an iterative gravity calibration process to make sure that flows between the starting and ending regions are balanced. The results show that population growth has a strong positive effect on rice movement, while economic growth has a weak negative effect, which is likely due to changes in eating habits and preferences. At a Level of Service value of 0.62, the model reaches equilibrium with an estimated flow of about 44000 tons. This is still less than the observed distribution volume of about 60000 tons. This difference shows that transportation factors only slightly limit rice distribution in West Java. Instead, it is mainly supported by strong demand and strong links between supply chains in different regions. Overall, the equilibrium consumption-based gravity model demonstrates stronger explanatory performance than conventional gravity approaches and provides a more reliable foundation for improving distribution efficiency and supporting regional food security planning.