Dynamics of total factor productivity of millets in India

This study examined the growth performance and determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) for three selected major millets, viz. sorghum, pearl millet and ragi in the principal millet growing states of India during 2010–11 to 2021–22. Using crop and state specific timeseries data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Divisia–Tornqvist indices were employed to estimate total output index, total input index and total factor productivity, while compound growth rates and regression analysis were used to assess productivity trends and their determinants. Results indicate that, output indices rose sharply for all three millets across states, negative TFP growth was observed for sorghum and pearl millet in almost all major producing states, whereas ragi exhibited positive TFP growth in Karnataka (2.4 %) and Odisha (1.4 %). Regression results indicate that public expenditure on agricultural research, education and extension per hectare has a positive and statistically significant effect on TFP for sorghum in Andhra Pradesh (0.03) and Tamil Nadu (0.11) and for pearl millet in Gujarat (0.10) and Maharashtra (0.01), while cropping intensity has a strong positive and significant influence on sorghum TFP in Karnataka (3.96) and Maharashtra (0.53). The findings suggest that millet development strategies should transcend input intensification and prioritise efficiency gains, technology adoption and location-specific management in predominantly rainfed production environments.