Expenditure Ceilings as a Tool of Fiscal Discipline: The Case of Türkiye

This study aims to evaluate the impact of the expenditure ceiling (appropriation proposal ceiling) mechanism implemented in Türkiye on public finance. Expenditure ceilings are key fiscal rule instruments designed to strengthen budgetary discipline and ensure the strategic allocation of public resources. Using central government budget data from 2006 to 2024, the study analyzes the errors between ceilings and actual expenditures, examining the distribution of these errors across spending categories. Findings indicate that while personnel and social security expenditures have been relatively disciplined, significant errors are observed in current transfers, goods and services purchases, and capital expenditures. The lack of legal enforcement in cases of errors undermines the binding nature of ceilings and weakens governance quality in the budgeting process. The study offers policy recommendations for integrating ceilings with performance-based budgeting, enhancing transparency and accountability, and reinforcing the legal framework. In this regard, it is emphasized that the expenditure ceiling practice in Türkiye should not be viewed merely as a technical control tool but as a strategic and governance-oriented mechanism that contributes to sound fiscal management.