Research on Road-to-Water Freight Shift for Inland Ports Based on Evolutionary Game Theory under China's Dual Carbon Strategy

Multimodal transport is a cost-effective lever for China's 2030-carbon-peak and 2060-carbon-neutrality pledge, yet road still accounts for 88% of Henan's bulk freight. To address the issues of transport modal shift from road to waterway for inland bulk goods, this paper develops a tripartite evolutionary game model involving local governments, freight shippers, and carriers. The stability of equilibrium strategies is analysed to identify evolutionary stable strategy combinations. Using data from a Chinese inland port, numerical simulations are conducted in MATLAB to investigate how parameter variations influence the evolutionary process. The results indicate that the level of local government support is determined by the balance between the social benefits derived from the shift and the costs of guidance and fiscal subsidies. Moreover, government influence does not directly determine the modal choice of shippers and carriers, rather, it operates through indirect economic incentives that shape their decision-making.