Chapter 2 How Distinct are Primary Voters? Insights from the 2024 Primary Election Survey

This chapter examines the distinctiveness of primary electorates using original survey data from the 2024 Primary Election Survey in three states.We find that when analyzed separately, Democratic and Republican primary electorates are unrepresentative of the general public on most policy issues.Republican primary voters show particular extremism on immigration policy, while both parties significantly deviate from public preferences on EPA funding, minimum wage, and abortion.Beyond traditional ideology, Democratic primary voters exhibit less conspiratorial thinking, populism, and openness to political violence than Republican voters, while showing stronger commitment to democratic liberalism.Notably, the general public aligns more closely with Republican primary voters on these non-policy dimensions, suggesting that Democratic primary voters are uniquely detached from broader public sentiment regarding institutional trust.Our findings indicate that partisan primary electorates may contribute to polarization, particularly in safe districts where primary elections effectively determine representation.Despite their crucial role in American democracy, we know surprisingly little about the distinctiveness of primary voters.Extant research on the ideological distinctiveness of primary voters is mixed.Moreover, scholars pay less attention to how primary electorates vary in their support for democratic institutions, trust in government, and acceptance of political violence.Are primary voters, compared to the general electorate, distinctively populist or conspiratorial, or less committed to democratic liberalism?If so, partisan primary elections (and primary voters in particular) may contribute to the changing attitudes and beliefs among elected officials.In this chapter, we present new evidence on the attitudinal distinctiveness of primary voters using original survey data collected during the 2024 primary elections in California, Michigan, and Nevada.We find little evidence that primary voters, in the aggregate, are more extreme than general elections voters.However, as we argue below, this comparison provides limited insight, since in most states Democratic and Republican primary voters function as two distinct electorates.