Chapter 6 Running Scared in the Primary: Campaign Behavior of Safe Incumbents in a Partisan Era

Over the last few decades, partisanship in the electorate has strengthened and the number of competitive congressional districts has shrunk.Now, the vast majority of incumbents are overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected in general elections simply because their party affiliation matches that of their district.Despite this decrease in electoral competitiveness, incumbents who are heavily advantaged to win their general elections still campaign vigorously, raising more money each cycle and allocating more time and staff to campaigning.I posit that these "safe" incumbents continue to campaign vigorously to project strength to deter strong candidates from challenging them in the only remaining election that could be competitive: the primary.These incumbents would rather deter these challengers from entering the race than risk facing them in the primary when voters are not tied by partisanship to the incumbent.Using fundraising data from House of Representative elections from 2002 to 2018, I show that these incumbents use fundraising to project strength to outside political actors, are less concerned with projecting strength during the primary and general election campaigns, and are most concerned with projecting strength before the candidacy filing deadline.Using data on primary challenger entry dates, I also show that primary challengers announce their campaigns after receiving cues about incumbents' strength from fundraising data.Incumbents with safe general elections still campaign vigorously because they are "running scared."With Republicans breathing down my neck -I'll be honest, this wasn't where I wanted to be right now.Can you consider making one last donation to get us all the way there?…I don't want to show any signs of weakness.(An email from Representative Brad Schneider (IL-10) to supporters, sent on August 1, 2019)We have 40 days until the most important election in American history.If we don't get across the finishing line, America as we know it may cease to exist… I am a few short days away from the most important fundraising deadline of the year… My campaign funds are depleting… it's getting harder and harder to defend myself.It's now or never.