The relationship between population urbanization and land: a perspective from territorial restructuring in Vietnam

Abstract The urbanization process in Vietnam is taking place rapidly and complexly, especially in the context of territorial restructuring through the merger of provincial administrative units. This study analyzes the relationship between land urbanization and population urbanization at the provincial level in the period 2017–2024 to assess the level of synchronization between these two processes before and after the merger. The data includes urban construction land area from Sentinel-2 satellite images and urban population from the General Statistics Office (GSO). The deviation coefficient method is used to measure the imbalance between population growth and urban land. The results show that more than 70 % of provinces recorded higher rates of land expansion than population growth, especially in the Northern mountainous region and the Mekong Delta. Spatial autocorrelations tests (Moran’s I) further confirmed clustering of imbalances, but the consolidation of provinces reduced the sharpness of imbalance clusters and produced a more spatial distribution. These findings contribute not only to academic debates but also provide evidence for central and provincial governments, urban planners, and policymakers to design threshold-based interventions aimed at synchronizing land use planning, infrastructure development, and population management under Vietnam’s new administrative framework.