Kicking for goal or touch? An expected points framework for penalty decisions in rugby union

Abstract Following a penalty in rugby union, teams typically choose between attempting a kick at goal or kicking to touch to pursue a try. We develop an Expected Points (EP) framework that quantifies the value of each option as a function of field location and game context. Using phase-level data and observed penalty kicks, we construct two context-aware surfaces: (i) the expected points of a possession beginning with a lineout and (ii) the expected points of attempting a kick at goal. Comparing these surfaces yields decision maps that identify where kicking for goal or kicking to touch maximizes expected points, and how the boundary shifts with game context and expected meters gained to touch. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive EP-based assessment of penalty strategy in rugby union; it also provides a foundation for future refinement with richer event data and extension to win-probability analysis.