Spatio-Temporal Variation, Regional Imbalance, and Spatial Dynamics of Straw Resource Economic Pressure in China’s Crop Sector

Crop straw, as a major agricultural residue, poses both environmental challenges and opportunities for sustainable resource utilization.This study introduces the concept of "straw pressure", defined as the amount of straw generated per unit of agricultural output, to evaluate the coupling between crop residue generation and agricultural development in China.Using panel data from 31 provinces during 2014-2023, we applied the Tapio decoupling model, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and a spatial Markov chain to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics and regional disparities of straw pressure.The results indicate that while China's total straw output continued to increase, overall straw pressure declined only slightly and exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with higher values in major grain-producing regions and lower levels in coastal provinces.Tapio results reveal that most regions experienced weak decoupling, with strong decoupling yet to emerge.Dagum decomposition shows that inequality is primarily driven by between-region gaps, which have widened over time.Spatial analysis indicates insignificant global autocorrelation but shifting local hot and cold spots, while the spatial Markov chain highlights strong lock-in effects for extreme states and significant neighborhood influence on transitions of intermediate states.These findings confirm the value of straw pressure as a diagnostic metric, providing evidencebased insights for region-specific policies to promote high-value utilization, cross-regional diffusion, and the green transformation of agriculture.