Equity Assessment of Emergency Shelter Spatial Distribution in High-Density Urban Areas Under Population Aging

Population aging has increased the need for safety protection among vulnerable groups. In high-density urban areas, mismatches between emergency shelter supply and demand limit equitable access to these services. This study examines three high-density districts in Guangzhou—Yuexiu, Liwan, and Haizhu— to identify areas requiring planning intervention. An evaluation model is proposed that assesses emergency shelter distribution from three perspectives: spatial equity, social equity, and social justice. Combining a multi catchment sizes Gaussian 2SFCA (MC-GA2SFCA) method with the Gini coefficient, Lorenz curves, factor analysis, and bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis, this study measures emergency shelter accessibility and reveals its spatial relationships with population distribution and social vulnerability. Results indicate that Haizhu and Liwan districts have insufficient emergency shelter coverage, with significant within-district disparities in accessibility. Four supply–demand imbalance areas exhibit high social vulnerability yet with low accessibility. These areas contain large concentrations of older adults and other vulnerable populations but lack adequate shelter coverage and effective sheltering areas. The study further proposes optimization strategies for increasing quantity, improving quality, strengthening governance, and supporting vulnerable groups. This evaluation model provides a basis for planning decisions on urban emergency shelter distribution.