Dynamics of Ukrainian support for authoritarianism before and after the large-scale Russian invasion: the impact of traumatic wartime events

Following the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukrainians were confronted with forced restrictions on political life, including its pluralistic media and competitive elections. The need for strong leadership led to the “rally around the flag” effect. The empirical analysis is based on a comparison of the opinions of the Ukrainian population, and in particular those who have experienced traumatic events during wartime, regarding a specific political system and principles of state governance. Throughout the four years of the ongoing war, Ukrainians have demonstrated a mixed attitude towards a democratic system, simultaneously approving of authoritarian principles of governance. In such circumstances, where people are striving for both democracy and strong leadership that is not restricted by parliament or procedures, a favourable value-normative background is created, not so much for the establishment of authoritarianism, but rather for the reproduction of support for yet another variety of populist and personalist regime. At the same time, over the years of this war, the proportion of Ukrainians who perceive authoritarian ideas negatively has been gradually increasing. Assumptions about the impact of war trauma on the growth of support for authoritarianism have not been realised. Among all groups that have experienced trauma, the proportion of support for authoritarianism does not differ significantly from that of the rest of the population. Only among people who were wounded as a result of combat operations is there a slightly higher proportion of support for authoritarianism. Examining the impact of the traumatic consequences of war on political consciousness during the war itself does not allow us to draw definitive conclusions. Only when the mobilization “anesthesia” wears off and the social “pain” of traumatized people intensifies will it be possible to obtain objective answers regarding their political aspirations.